Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 9111-9119; 9121-9129; 9131-9139; 9141; 9191)

Public administration comprises establishments primarily engaged in activities of a governmental nature at the federal, provincial, territorial, regional, municipal and local levels. It covers legislative activities, taxation, national defence, public order and safety, immigration services, foreign affairs and international assistance, and the administration of government programs. The industry includes not only public servants, but also members of the Canadian armed forces, policemen and firefighters. The federal administration is the largest of the five segments, accounting for 39% of production and 41% of employment in 2023 (excluding full time members of the Canadian armed forces), followed by local, municipal and regional administration (32% of production and employment), and provincial and territorial administration (25% and 26%). Aboriginal administration along with international and other extra-territorial administration account for the remaining share of production and employment (4% and 1%). Overall, public administration employed about 1.2 million workers in 2023, distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 24% in Quebec, 12% in British Columbia, 10% in Alberta, and 16% in the remaining provinces and territories. The workforce is evenly split between men (48%) and women (52%) and benefits from much higher wages than the national average, partly attributable to high unionization rates (75%).

Given the wide variety of activities, key occupations (5-digit NOC) include a mix of:

• Police officers (except commissioned)(42100)
• Employment insurance  and revenue officers (12104)
• Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41403)
• Government managers (40010-40012)
• Firefighters (42101)
• Information systems specialists (21222)
• Financial auditors and accountants (11100)
• Correctional service officers (43201)
• Lawyers and Quebec notaries (41101)
• Security guards and related security service occupations (64410)
• User support technicians (22221)
• Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41405)
• Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41400)
• Public works and maintenance labourers (75212)Procurement and purchasing agents and officers (12102)
• Civil engineers (21300)
• Senior government managers and officials (00011)
• Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts (41401)
• Executive assistants (12100)
• Construction inspectors (22233)
• Public and environmental health and safety professionals (21120)
• Commissioned police officers and related occupations in public protection services (40040)
• Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41404)
• Urban and land use planners (21202)
• Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks (14301)
• Survey interviewers and statistical clerks (14110)
• Probation and parole officers (41311)
• Database analysts and data administrators (21223)
• Program officers unique to government (41407)
• Data entry clerks (14111)
• By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c. (43202)
• Biologists and related scientists (21110)
• Biological technologists and technicians (22110)
• Legislators (00010)
• Court clerks and related court services occupations (14103)
• Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers (22231)
• Agricultural and fish products inspectors (22111)
• Translators, terminologists and interpreters (51114)
• Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology (22214)
• Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries (21210)
• Judges (41100)
• Meteorologists and climatologists (21103)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.0%. The federal government has committed to reducing its budget deficit over the next few years, which will likely limit government spending and thus limit growth in public administration in the short-to-medium-term. Many provincial governments are also struggling to balance their budgets, further limiting growth. Longer term, real GDP growth is expected to be positive, but also to remain constrained. Helping to keep growth positive is the different governments’ commitment to tackling climate change through various initiatives, which should boost government spending and consequently boost the demand for public administration services. In addition, Canada’s aging population is also expected to lead to greater government spending on support for elders (for example, the Canadian Pension Plan and the Old Age Security), which would bolster the sector’s output. However, Canada’s aging population could also constrain expansion. As more Canadians hit retirement age over the course of the coming decade, government tax revenues could take a hit, limiting governments’ ability to spend money and to increase output in the sector.

Productivity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.3%. As government tax revenues are expected to be constrained compared to demand for services, governments are expected to automate some of their operations and to keep implementing new labour-saving ways of delivering services, leading to gains in productivity throughout the projection period. With rapid advancements anticipated in cognitive technologies, government operations involving routine tasks (in occupations such as clerks, inspectors and program officers) are expected to become increasingly automated and performed by specialized software, smart systems and online applications. At the same time, operations involving non-routine tasks (in occupations such as researchers, analysts and scientists) are expected to become increasingly complemented and enhanced by big data analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning. However, due to both the nature of the technology and the requirements regarding human oversight, productivity gains from technology are not expected to significantly reduce the sector’s overall labour intensity.

Employment is projected to increase by 0.7% annually. Although the sector is expected to remain relatively labour intensive despite the adoption of technological advancements, moderate output growth and tight government budgets are expected to result in lower hiring intentions and consequently lower employment growth than in the past.

Challenges and Opportunities

An important risk to public administration is the potential for change in government. Traditionally, some governments have been more fiscally conservative, and have cut spending on programs, reducing demand for public administration. On the other hand, the government faces multiple issues that might require increased spending, such as the aging of the population, the transition to a zero carbon economy, and reducing the housing shortage. Efforts from all levels of government to address these challenges may increase both output and employment in the sector beyond the levels currently expected.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.