Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

The Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the three main steps of the model, and identifies labour market imbalances (shortage/surplus) for occupations at the national level for the 2024-2033 period.

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The occupational projections prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of a macroeconomic and industrial outlook to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.

This document presents the macroeconomic and industrial outlook that underlies the 2024 COPS projections. This outlook was developed in collaboration with the Deloitte based on information available as of Spring 2024.

The future long-term trends in Canada’s economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographic developments, namely population aging and higher immigration. Such demographic changes are projected to have a significant influence in the long- term evolution of Canada's labour force, employment, and economic potential.

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This document presents the job openings, job seekers and imbalances for each component of the 2024 COPS projections.

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