Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

NAICS 1111-1119; 1121-1129; 1151-1152

The industry is composed of three segments: crop production (77% of total production in 2021); animal production (16%); and related support activities (6%). Crop production includes oilseeds, grains, fruits, vegetables, plants, vines and cannabis. Animal production is the process of raising cattle, hog, poultry and other animals for generating meat, egg and dairy products. It also includes aquaculture and apiculture. Examples of related support activities are harvesting, fertilizing and sterilizing services, and any services related to raising livestock, including companion animals. Crop production is highly export-oriented, while animal production is mostly domestic-oriented. The industry employed a total of 251,800 workers in 2021, with 46% in crop production and 44% in animal production. Employment is largely concentrated in Ontario (27%), Quebec (22%), Alberta (14%) and Saskatchewan (11%). The workforce is characterized by a high proportion of men (68%) and self-employed (52%). Key occupations (4-digit NOC) include:

• Managers in agriculture (0821)
• General farm workers (8431)
• Agriculture service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers (8252)
• Nursery and greenhouse workers (8432)
• Harvesting labourers (8611) Managers in horticulture (0822)
• Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers (8613)
• Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services (8255)
• Transport truck drivers (7511)
• Managers in aquaculture (0823)

The agriculture industry is very sensitive to weather conditions, fluctuations in global demand and commodity prices, as well as economic activity in food processing and food services. At the national level, real GDP in the industry grew steadily over the period 2012-2020, driven by additional growth in domestic and foreign demand. On the supply side, innovations in biotechnology increased crop yields, while investments in advanced automation reduced production costs. The cannabis segment has led output growth since it was legalized for recreational use in 2018, growing at an annual average rate of 25%, nearly doubling its share in agricultural production from 15% in 2018 to 29% in 2021 . The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the industry as producers were forced to respond quickly to new disruptions like labour shortages, increased health and safety regulations, market fluctuations, supply chain delays, the reduced capacity and closures of meat processing plants, and the shutdown of the food services industry. Despite these obstacles, the agriculture industry outperformed the Canadian economy in 2020, with output growing by 4.5%. However, severe droughts in Western Canada and flooding in British Columbia reduced crop yields for grain products in 2021, leading to a sharp decline in output and employment. The resulting pace of growth in the overall industry’s real GDP averaged 2.3% annually over the period 2012-2021. As key aspects of farming, such as seeding, crop surveillance and ecosystem management, were increasingly automated, employment in agriculture declined almost continuously during the same period, down by 2.0% annually. Consequently, productivity gains accounted for all the growth in output over the past decade. Productivity growth has been driven by a number of factors, including increased farm size, expanded prevalence of genetically modified crops, a jump in the use of pesticide and fertilizer, as well as the introduction of productivity enhancing machinery and equipment such as robotic milking machines, automated feeding systems, and advanced environmental control systems for cannabis production. Farmers are also increasingly employing drones to monitor crops, automated technologies for pest management, and data-intensive applications for optimal seeding and fertilization. The acceleration of automatization over the past several years has made agriculture the fastest growing industry in Canada in terms of productivity, which rose at an average annual rate of 4.3% from 2012 to 2021 .

Real GDP in agriculture is projected to keep growing at a solid pace over the next decade, especially in the short term, as production recovers from the sharp decline recorded in 2021 and returns to pre-drought levels. After surging to record highs in 2021 due to lower world production and strong demand, prices are expected to remain elevated, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is set to weight on already tight global agricultural production. Over the longer term, population growth in Canada will continue to support domestic demand while robust global demand will continue to maintain high prices and support exports, although prices should remain subject to high volatility due to unpredictable crop production and fluctuations in input costs (such as energy and fertilizers). With a large share of production destined to foreign markets, additional growth in global population, rising per capita income in developing and emerging economies, and greater trade liberalization will continue to drive demand. In the past several years, the Government of Canada negotiated new trade agreements and improved market access. For example, the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) reduced the tariffs on many agriculture products destined to the EU market, but also offered better access to segments of the Canadian industry that are protected under supply management, increasing foreign competition on the domestic market. Other potential drivers of long-term growth prospects include increased use of biofuels and the impacts of climate change. Biofuels are a promising alternative to fossil fuels, but the lack of clarity in future policy that is necessary to define future market demand is expected to restrain growth in this segment. Finally, while continued disruption resulting from climate change can have a negative impact on production, it can also have a positive impact through an extension of the growing season. On the domestic front, the pace of growth in cannabis production is expected to slow to more sustainable levels as this segment matures, although it should continue to outpace growth in the agriculture industry as a whole.

Overall, real GDP growth in the industry is projected to average 2.7% annually for the period 2022-2031. This slight acceleration in output growth from the last decade is expected to lead to a modest rebound in employment, although additional gains in productivity will continue to restrain job creation. As a result, employment growth is expected to average a modest 0.4% annually over the projection period, leaving the number of agriculture workers below its pre-pandemic level of 2019. Higher international market integration and labour recruitment difficulties will continue to put pressure on Canadian farmers to be cost-effective through innovative technologies such as biometric sensors to examine livestock, self-learning milking machines, and driverless tractors guided by geo-positioning satellite devices. However, since much of the mechanization process and adoption of output-enhancing technologies have taken place over the past decade, productivity growth is not expected to be as robust over the next ten years, averaging 2.3% annually. An aging workforce and difficulties to attract domestic workers due to the seasonal nature of the industry, its rural location, low wages and long hours have also resulted in greater utilization of foreign temporary workers in agriculture. In its Budget 2022, the federal government announced an investment of over $1 billion in an effort to improve the industry’s sustainability and reduce GHG emissions, as well as $156 million in funding to enhance the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, including $48 million to implement a new program for agriculture and fish processing.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Agriculture

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.