Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

NAICS 2121; 2122; 2123

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in mining or preparing metallic and non-metallic minerals. It is composed of three segments: coal mining (9% of total production in 2021); metal ore mining (54%); and non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying (38%). The industry exports about two-thirds of its production, mainly to the United Kingdom (22% of exports in 2021), the United States (17%), China (16%) and Japan (7%). It employed 78,900 workers in 2021, with 51% in metal ore mining, 21% in non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying, 8% in coal mining, while the remaining 20% were not associated to any particular segment. Employment is mostly concentrated in Ontario (28%), Quebec (25%), British Columbia (21%) and Saskatchewan (9%), and the workforce is primarily composed of men (86%). Key occupations (4-digit NOC) include:

• Underground production and development miners (8231)
• Supervisors, mining and quarrying (8221)
• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312)
• Underground mine service and support workers (8411)
• Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311)
• Transport truck drivers (7511)
• Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) Industrial electricians (7242)
• Mine labourers (8614)
• Geological and mineral technologists and technicians (2212)
• Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113)
• Mining engineers (2143)
• Geological engineers (2144)

Being a price-taker in the global marketplace, the performance of the mining industry is largely governed by world economic and geopolitical conditions that influence commodity prices. After being severely affected by the dramatic drop in demand and prices of most metals and minerals during the recession of 2008-2009, production slowly recovered from 2010 to 2014. The prices of metals and minerals peaked in 2011 and fell back gradually in the following years as China, which consumes roughly half of the global production of metals, began slowing its rate of industrialization, leading to weaker demand. In 2015, prices had fallen back to the level observed during the recession, but production at projects already in operation continued to grow, resulting in additional increases in output until 2017. By 2018-2019, prices were still relatively low, making the development of new projects simply not economically viable and production started declining. The decline amplified in 2020, as global demand fell sharply due to the lockdowns resulting from the spread of COVID-19. This trend was reversed in 2021, as supply disruptions coupled with increasing demand led to major increases in prices for a variety of metals and minerals. The resulting pace of growth in real GDP averaged 1.6% annually over the period 2012-2021. After peaking in 2017-2018, employment fell sharply in 2019-2020, before rebounding modestly in 2021. These fluctuations lowered employment growth to an average annual rate of only 0.2% over the past ten years, making productivity growth (+1.4% annually) the largest contributor to output growth. While productivity can fluctuate a lot with the composition of the commodities being mined, it has also been positively influenced by the growing use of various technologies such as GPS surveying, three-dimensional data maps, airborne technologies, remote-operated equipment, automated loading and transportation systems, advanced robotics and seismic mapping and imaging.

The outlook for the Canadian mining industry remains positive over the projection period, although the pace of growth in output is expected to weaken relative to the past decade, with positive drivers of growth being tempered by environmental concerns. While output is expected to decline in 2022 as COVID-induced labour shortages and severe weather impacted major gold and iron mines at the beginning of the year, the next two years have better prospects as multiple major mines, mainly gold-producing, will come online. The outlook for non-metal mining is also promising, with growth in this segment primarily driven by potash mining, particularly under the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Indeed, as the world largest producer of potash in the world (followed by Russia and Belarus), Canada is well positioned to provide an alternative for Russian exports of potash and meet increased global demand for a secure source of fertilizer. Over the longer term, mining activity is also expected to be supported by various initiatives from the federal and provincial governments. For example, in Budget 2022, the federal government announced a Critical Mineral Strategy intended to prioritize the development of key minerals. The goal of this $3.8 billion commitment is to enable Canada to develop domestic value chains, especially around the production of zero-emission vehicles, as well as to reduce the impact of future supply chain disruptions (such as those observed during the pandemic of COVID-19). To support this strategy, the federal government has identified 31 critical minerals used in the production of clean energy, with special emphasis on lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and copper. However, the developments of new projects, such as the Ring of Fire project in Northern Ontario, which has the potential to produce many critical minerals, still faces opposition from environmental and indigenous groups. Also, the time from exploration to production of new mines remains excessively long in Canada, which may discourage new investment. Finally, Canada’s focus on meeting carbon reduction targets will restrict the growth of certain areas of mining and quarrying, such as coal production.

On average, real GDP in the mining industry is projected to grow at annual rate of 0.9% over the period 2022-2031. Despite slower output growth relative to the past decade, employment growth is expected to accelerate, averaging 1.1% annually, due to a turnaround in productivity, which is expected to decline marginally (-0.2% annually). In fact, most of the increase in employment and all the decline in productivity are expected to occur in 2022, reflecting adjustments to a post-pandemic environment. Starting in 2023, productivity growth is expected to resume and average 1.0% annually, which is more in line with its historical trend. Renewed growth in productivity will also result in more moderate gains in employment for the rest of the projection period, averaging 0.4% per year from 2023 to 2031.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Mining

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.