Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 3211; 3212; 3219)

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing products from wood. It is composed of three different segments: sawmills and wood preservation (35% of total production in 2023); veneer, plywood and engineered wood products (33%); and other wood products such as doors, windows and frames (37%). Overall, about 50% of the industry’s production is shipped abroad, mostly to the United States which accounts for 88% of exports, distantly followed by Japan which accounted for 4% of its total exports in 2023. The three segments of the industry do not face the same degree of exposure to domestic and foreign economic conditions. Sawmills and wood preservation along with veneer, plywood and engineered wood products are highly dependant on foreign demand, with exports accounting for 61% of production. In contrast, other wood products are more sensitive to domestic demand with about 70% of production sold within the country. The industry employed about 105,000 workers in 2023 (5.8% of total manufacturing employment), with 37% in sawmills and wood preservation, 10% in veneer, plywood and engineered wood products, and 53% in other wood products. Employment is mostly concentrated in Quebec (34%), Ontario (23%), and British Columbia (22%), and the workforce is primarily composed of men (81%).

Key occupations (5-digit NOC) include:

• Assemblers and inspectors of other wood products (94211)
• Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing (95103)
• Supervisors, forest products processing (92014)
• Sawmill machine operators (94120)
• Other wood processing machine operators (94129)
• Woodworking machine operators (94124)
• Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders (94123)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3%. Output growth in wood product manufacturing will be supported by a projected increase in housing starts, both domestically and in the United States. Led by a further decline in interest rates, housing construction and renovation will boost demand for wood products in the short term. In the longer term, the outlook for the housing sector remains positive, driven by government incentives aimed at increasing the housing stock as well as home modernization due to population growth. Additionally, policies promoting sustainable and energy-efficient construction should benefit the production of wood products, which are considered a more environmentally friendly building material.

Productivity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3%. The continued adoption of automated machinery and new products, such as the development of engineered wood products, has been critical to offsetting the increased costs of materials, labour, and supplies. Given the continuous growth in efficiency measures taken by the industry, real GDP growth is expected to entirely come from productivity gains.

Employment is projected to remain stable over the projected period (0.0% annual growth).. Employment is projected to stabilise over the long run after recording a constant declining trend over the past decade. The pace of consolidation and transformation of operations that boosted productivity in the past ten years, while still expected to continue over the next decade, will be more moderate.

Challenges and Opportunities

On the positive side, technological advancements such as manufacturing automation are enhancing production efficiency and product quality. Adoption of ecofriendly practices and certification schemes like the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) and Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and Government support through initiatives like the National Housing Strategy and the Investment in Forestry Industry Transformation (IFIT) program is encouraging innovation and sustainability efforts and enhancing global competitiveness. However, one of the main risks that could potentially negatively impact the industry is the imposition of tariffs on softwood lumber. Although this is a recurring issue for the industry, the United States’ threat to impose new tariffs on imports from Canada constitutes a major source of uncertainty and, if it materializes, would represent a significant burden on the industry.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.