Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

NAICS 5111-5112; 5121-5122; 5151-5152; 5171-5179; 5182; 5191

This industry is composed of six segments: publishing (newspapers, magazines, books and software); motion picture and sound recording (movies, videos, television programs, commercials, music recording); radio and television broadcasting (radio and TV networks, including pay and specialty channels, but excluding Internet broadcasting); telecommunications (providing telephone, television and Internet services through wireline, co-axial cable, optical fiber, wireless and satellite technologies); data processing, hosting and related services (data entry, data storage, data analysis, web hosting, music and movie streaming); and other information services (news syndicates, libraries and archives, Internet broadcasting of textual and audio/video content, web search portals). Production and employment is distributed quite unevenly across the six segments. Telecommunications services are the largest segment, accounting for 58% of production and 34% of employment in 2021, making this segment the most capital intensive, but also the most highly concentrated with five companies accounting for about 85% of revenues. In comparison, motion picture and sound recording accounted for only 7% of production but 25% of employment, making this segment the most labour intensive. Publishing services accounted for 18% of production and 19% of employment, compared to 18% and 22% respectively for the remaining three segments. Overall, the industry employed 393,500 workers in 2021, largely concentrated in Ontario (44%), Quebec (22%) and British Columbia (18%), with men accounting for the majority of the workforce (62%). Given the wide variety of activities, key occupations (4-digit NOC) include a mix of:

• Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations (5131)
• Telecom. installation and repair workers (7246)
• Library assistants and clerks (1451)
• Graphic designers and illustrators (5241)
• User support technicians (2282)
• Information systems analysts and consultants (2171)
• Telecommunication carriers managers (0131)
• Computer programmers and interactive media developers (2174)
• Journalists (5123)
• Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography, performing arts (5227)
• Audio and video recording technicians (5225)
• Editors (5122)
• Computer engineers (2147)
• Computer network technicians (2281)
• Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors (1513)
• Computer and information systems managers (0213)
• Telecommunications line and cable workers (7245)
• Other technical and co-ordinating occ. in motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts (5226)
• Film and video camera operators (5222)
• Announcers and other broadcasters (5231)
• Software engineers and designers (2173)
• Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts (0512)
• Librarians (5111)
• Cable television service and maintenance technicians (7247)
• Graphic arts technicians (5223)
• Library and public archive technicians (5211)
• Broadcast technicians (5224)

Digital technologies have transformed the ways information and cultural products are produced, distributed and consumed, and telecommunications services providers are playing an increasing role in making these products accessible to the public. Basically, the industry is heavily reliant on consumer spending and businesses expenditures in Canada, making it sensitive to fluctuations in domestic economic conditions, although the telecommunications segment appears to be relatively resilient in period of economic downturns. After experiencing a small decline during the recession of 2008-2009, the output increased at an accelerating pace from 2010 to 2019, recording solid growth across all segments of the industry, except broadcasting which experienced negative growth. During that period, the industry benefited from robust demand for mobile telephony, high-speed Internet and music and movie streaming services, as well as the diffusion of an increased volume of content on the Internet (information, data, news, advertisement, social media, audio/video content, books, etc.). Broadcasting (which excludes Internet broadcasting) was the only segment to record a declining trend in output prior to the pandemic and this can be explained by the shift in consumption patterns toward online content and music and movie streaming (such as Spotify, Youtube, Netflix and Amazon Prime), which has reduced demand and advertising revenues in traditional radio and television networks. The industry’s output temporarily contracted in 2020, during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, as lockdowns, home confinement and physical distancing measures reduced activity across several segments such as motion picture and sound recording. However, people continued to use telecommunications services for work, shopping, socializing and entertainment, leading to additional growth in this segment. Data processing, hosting and related services, which capture music and movie streaming, also recorded additional growth.

The resulting pace of growth in the industry’s real GDP averaged 2.4% annually over the period 2012-2021. Despite solid output growth prior to the pandemic, employment was on a downward trend, falling at an average pace of 2.2% per year from 2012 to 2019, due to significant declines in the broadcasting, telecommunications and publishing segments. However, this situation was reversed during the pandemic as people looked to get an increasing volume of information, culture and telecommunications services from the safety of their home, leading to substantial rebounds in employment across the industry (+8.8% in 2020 and +14.1% in 2021). These gains were strong enough to outpace the declines recorded in the previous eight years, resulting in positive employment growth averaging 0.3% annually for the full period 2012-2021. This means that the increase in output came entirely from productivity growth prior to the pandemic (as employment decreased) and entirely from employment growth during the pandemic (as productivity decreased). Overall, productivity growth averaged 2.3% annually in the past ten years, mostly driven by the downsizing of several industry segments prior to the pandemic and by the fact that telecommunications services are highly capital intensive.

During the projection period, output growth in the industry is expected to moderate relative to the period 2012-2021, evolving more in line with overall economic growth. More precisely, output growth is projected to remain robust in 2022 (+6.0%), before weakening in 2023-2024, as strong inflation and higher interest rates are expected to weigh on final domestic demand, including consumer spending and business investment. Growth in output should improve modestly over the medium-term, driven by some cyclical recovery, and remain around the pace of growth projected for the Canadian economy in the second half of the projection period. The industry will continue to be supported by robust demand for online content and the growing requirements in terms of data transmission and storage. More specifically, the shift in the distribution and consumption of information and cultural products toward digital media will continue to stimulate demand for Internet publishing and broadcasting as well as music and movie streaming, boosting growth in the data processing, hosting and other information services segments of the industry. The telecommunications segment will also continue to benefit from the increasing amounts of data used by consumers and businesses through mobile devices and fixed Internet services due to the growing popularity of streaming applications, cloud computing, unified communications and cyber security solutions. Renewed growth anticipated in business investment in machinery and equipment (including information and communications technologies) is an additional factor expected to support spending on telecommunications services.

The next generation of wireless networks will play a central role as well, with the deployment of 5G technologies across Canada. In the long term, 5G networks will result in faster downloads, lower latency, and better performance on various devices, including smart cars and the Internet of Things (IoT), creating new market opportunities. Furthermore, the growing popularity of online platforms for music and movie streaming should continue to support growth in the motion picture and sound recording segment, while the relatively low value of the Canadian dollar will maintain Canada’s competitiveness as a location for the production of American movies and TV series. Netflix has announced it will open its first Canadian office in Toronto. This first corporate office will join Netflix’s current studio operations in Toronto and Vancouver and reinforces the company’s recognition of the movie industry in Canada. On the negative side, output and employment in the traditional radio-television broadcasting segment (which excludes Internet broadcasting) are expected to keep contracting, although this segment should eventually reach a new equilibrium following the significant disruptions caused by the digital revolution.

On average, the industry’s real GDP is projected to increase by 1.8% annually over the period 2022-2031. Despite slower output growth relative to the previous decade, employment growth is projected to accelerate, averaging 0.8% per year, as result of softer gains in productivity which is expected to grow by 1.0% annually. The telecommunications segment, which represents the backbone of all activities powered by Internet connectivity, is expected to add new positions moving forward, particularly in areas requiring high skills such as IT professionals and data scientists. Employment is also projected to increase in most other segments of the industry, including motion picture and sound recording. Because this segment is highly labour intensive, it is expected to restrain productivity growth in the industry. Providing access to broadband services to rural areas is an additional factor that may explain the slowdown anticipated in productivity growth, as getting infrastructure to remote populations is expensive and typically not productivity enhancing. High capital and labour costs related to the deployment of 5G networks may also limit the increase in productivity in the short to medium term. That said, productivity growth is still expected to remain the largest contributor to GDP growth in the industry over the projection period, powered by rapid advancement in digital and telecommunication technologies.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Information, Culture and Telecommunications Services

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.