Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 6111)

Elementary and secondary schools comprise establishments primarily engaged in providing academic courses that consist of a basic preparatory education, from kindergarten to grade 12. They employed 876,900 workers in 2021, with women accounting for 75% of the workforce. Employment is distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 26% in Quebec, 12% in British Columbia, 11% in Alberta, and 14% in the remaining provinces. Key occupations (4-digit NOC) include:

• Elementary school and kindergarten teachers (4032)
• Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants (4413)
• Secondary school teachers (4031)
• School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education (0422)
• Early childhood educators and assistants (4214)
• Educational counsellors (4033)
• Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers (4166)
• Audiologists and speech-language pathologists (3141)
• Instructors of persons with disabilities (4215)
• Library and public archive technicians (5211)

* It also includes a significant number of Bus drivers (7512).

Economic activity in elementary and secondary schools is mainly driven by demographic trends in population aged 5 to 17 and particularly sensitive to government expenditures in education. Growth in output was relatively modest over the past ten years, as positive growth in population aged 5 to 12 was accompanied by negative growth in population aged 13 to 17. Despite moderate growth in school-aged population, the increase in public and private expenditures on elementary and secondary education led to a growing output in most years, with the exception of 2020 when schools were completely shut down in some provinces due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During that year, the output fell by 8.7%, pushing many parents to home-schooling initiatives. However, with the reopening of schools throughout 2021, the output quickly recovered (+8.9%), resulting in an average growth rate of 1.0% annually in real GDP for the entire period 2012-2021.

While output growth was rather modest, employment growth was much stronger, averaging 2.4% per year over the past decade, largely supported by additional gains during the pandemic years. In contrast with output, employment continued to expand in 2020 as most teachers remained employed throughout the pandemic and switched to working from home during lockdown periods. More importantly, employment surged in 2021 (+8.0%) as some provinces gave children the option of attending school virtually or in-person and the need to provide those two types of services concurrently boosted labour demand. With employment growth outpacing output growth, productivity contracted at an average pace of 1.4% annually in the past ten years, recording a large part of the decline in 2020. Thai said, the concept and measurement of productivity in educational services may differ from the other sectors of the economy where goods and services are traded and more easily valued in monetary terms. For example, the introduction of more computers in the classroom may improve the educational experience of students, but this development may not necessarily show up in the productivity figures because the number of teachers does not necessarily adjust to the growing use of technology.

Over the projection period, output growth in elementary and secondary schools is expected to remain relatively modest, with significant gains in the near term accompanied by weaker gains in the longer term. In the first half of the forecast horizon, school enrolment will benefit from additional growth in population aged 5 to 17, primarily driven by the strong rebound projected in teenage population (13 to 17) as low fertility rates will restrain growth in population aged 5 to 12. Increased immigration targets are also expected to raise the number of immigrants’ children entering the primary and secondary school systems. In the second half of the forecast horizon, growth in school-aged population is expected to weaken and population aging will continue to erode the federal and provincial tax bases, while simultaneously putting further pressures on the health care system, limiting the ability of governments to expand expenditures in educational services.

The resulting pace of growth in the industry’s real GDP is projected to average 1.0% annually over the period 2022-2031, a pace similar to the past ten years. However, after surging in 2021, employment growth is projected to slow significantly relative to the previous decade, averaging 0.6% per year. This reflects a notable pickup in productivity, which is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.4%. The turnaround in productivity can be explained by the fact that most elementary and secondary schools are expected to cease offering online education after the pandemic, lowering the need for additional labour and leading to renewed gains in productivity. The growing adoption of technology in the classroom is also expected to have a positive impact on productivity, or at least efficiency. For example, with the use of learning management systems (LMS), students can access online resources to get assistance beyond the physical reach of their teacher. For students who need to spend more time practicing a concept, online exercises can also help them work at their own pace and still keep up with their peers. The growing use of educational tablets in the K-12 schooling system (i.e. from kindergarten to 12th grade) has brought mobility to the classroom while improving learning. Electronic documents, emails, virtual labs, virtual field trips, electronic textbooks, and free online resources help schools save money and provide students with more efficient educational experiences. Teachers can also utilize technology to access virtual expert improvement courses (most are free) and personal learning networks (PLN) to discover resources, share thoughts, and get support from their colleagues. Again, while those developments are expected to improve the efficiency of the education system, it is not clear how they will translate in terms of productivity numbers.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Elementary and Secondary Schools

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.