Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 6112, 6114-6117)

Community colleges and CEGEPs comprise establishments primarily engaged in providing academic or technical courses and granting associate degrees, certificates or diplomas that are below the university level. The requirement for admission to an associate or equivalent degree program is at least a high school diploma or equivalent general academic training. Vocational schools comprise establishments such as business, computer and management training schools, technical and trade schools, and other schools primarily engaged in providing instruction in fine arts, sports, languages and a variety of other topics (first-aid training, driving lessons, adult literacy programs). These establishments may be privately owned and operated, either for profit or not, or they may be publicly owned and operated. Community colleges and CEGEPs account for the largest share of output (68% in 2021), while vocational schools account for the largest share of employment (56% in 2021; with “other schools” alone accounting for 48%). This situation can be explained by the fact that vocational schools are characterized by a high proportion of part-time workers (51%) and self-employed (48%). Overall, the industry employed 280,300 workers in 2021, with women accounting for 59% of the workforce. Employment is distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 24% in Quebec, 16% in British Columbia, 12% in Alberta, and 10% in the remaining provinces. Given the wide variety of educational services offered by the industry, key occupations (4-digit NOC) include a mix of:

• College and other vocational instructors (4021)
• Other instructors (4216)
• Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness (5254)
• Musicians and singers (5133)
• Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers (4166)
• Dancers (5134)
• Coaches (5252)
• Post-secondary teaching and research assistants (4012)
• Administrators in post-secondary education and vocational training (0421)
• Educational counsellors (4033)

Economic activity in community colleges and CEGEPs is largely driven by demographic trends in the 17-21 age cohort (the prime age for attending college or seeking technical training) and is particularly sensitive to government spending in education. In comparison, many of the educational services provided by vocational schools cover multiple age groups (including children, youth and adults) and are partly supported by consumer spending on extra-curricular activities associated with arts, sports and hobbies in general (such as music, dance, ski or tennis lessons). Overall, the industry appears to be resilient to cyclical downturns, reflecting the fact that during bad economic times, youth usually stay in school longer, while displaced workers return to school to upgrade their skills in response to poorer job opportunities. As a result, the output continued to increase during and shortly after the recession of 2008-2009, before stagnating from 2012 to 2016 due to a decline in population aged 17-21. This demographic trend was reversed in subsequent years, contributing to a significant acceleration in output growth from 2017 to 2019, which was also supported by a sharp increase in the number of individuals in multiple age groups who enrolled in vocational schools.

However, the output fell by 7.2% in 2020, mostly reflecting a large decline in the vocational segment as many establishments providing extra-curricular activities (associated with arts, sports and hobbies) were shut down during the COVID-19 pandemic. Immigration and border restrictions also negatively impacted the enrolment of international students in colleges and CEGEPs. With the reopening of vocational schools and the digital transformation of the learning process, the output recovered a large part of its pandemic losses in 2021 (+6.4%), resulting in an average growth rate of 1.4% annually in real GDP for the entire period 2012-2021. In comparison, employment growth averaged 2.4% per year, and the job losses recorded in 2020 (-7.1%) were fully recuperated in 2021 (+7.4%). A large part of the employment gains recorded the past decade took place in vocational schools where most establishments have a high concentration of part-time workers, which tends to boost their employment numbers relative to other establishments. The significant gap observed between output and employment growth over the past ten years reflected a declining trend in productivity, which contracted by 1.0% annually. This situation can be partly explained by the high degree of labour intensity in vocational schools, which are characterized by a strong concentration of part-time workers (in COPS, labour productivity is measured by real GDP divided by the total number of workers, rather than the total number of hours worked). It could also reflect changes in the types of programs offered within schools and the fact that colleges and CEGEPs were slow to embrace digital technologies in the delivery of education services prior to the pandemic.

Over the projection period, output growth in colleges, CEGEPs and vocational schools is expected to accelerate significantly, as the industry continues to recover from the pandemic and keeps expanding. Growth is projected to be driven by the return of international students to Canada in the near term and by a strong rebound in population aged 17 to 21 relative to the past decade. The growing demand for higher educated and skilled workers, resulting from the changing nature of work and the continued shift toward a digital economy, is expected to keep pushing up enrolment rates in colleges and technical schools in Canada. This is also true for older workers who may see the need to upgrade their skills in order to adjust to technological progress. Indeed, automation is increasing rapidly in many sectors of the economy, not only in the goods-producing sector, but also in the services sector. Some jobs are being eliminated, while many others are changing and require new skills and technical training to better integrate and complement technology.

On average, the industry’s real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3% annually over the period 2022-2031. The significant acceleration in output growth relative to the previous decade is also projected to lead to faster growth in employment, with job creation averaging 2.9% per year. Overall, productivity is expected to keep contracting, albeit at a slower pace than the last ten years, with declines averaging 0.6% annually. In fact, a large part the increase in employment and the totality of the decline in productivity are projected to occur in 2022-2023, reflecting adjustments to a post-pandemic environment. Starting in 2024, productivity growth is expected to resume and result in more moderate gains in employment for the rest of the projection period. Renewed growth in productivity reflects the fact that colleges and other educational institutions have adopted the use of virtual learning and other digital technologies in the classroom during the pandemic. This trend is expected to persist and even amplify in the future, leading to modest gains in productivity, despite the fact that the industry will remain labour intensive.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.