Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 6113)

Universities comprise establishments primarily engaged in providing academic courses and granting degrees at the bachelor or graduate levels. The requirement for admission is at least a high school diploma or equivalent general academic training for baccalaureate programs, and often a baccalaureate degree for professional or graduate programs. Canadian universities employed around 305,800 workers in 2023, distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 20% in Quebec, 17% in British Columbia, 11% in Alberta, and 15% in the remaining provinces. The workforce is characterized by a majority of women (55%) and a relatively high share of part-time employees (23%).

The key occupations (5-digit NOC) include:

• University professors and lecturers (41200)
• Post-secondary teaching and research assistants (41201)
• Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training (40020)
• Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41405)
• Educational counsellors (41320)
• Librarians (51100)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2%. In the short-term, gains in real GDP for universities are expected to be limited, resulting primarily from the cap on new international student permits. Given that international students pay higher tuition fees, the decline in the number of new international students will greatly impact universities’ revenues. Further, international students have driven enrollment and therefore, output gains over the past decade and reducing this source of demand will weigh on activity. Longer term, subdued growth in the population aged 18 to 24 is predicted to put downward pressure on the share of Canadians seeking a university education. However, over the medium term, the number of foreign students expected to come to Canada for a university education is expected to resume growth, helping drive the sector in the medium-to-long-term despite an aging population. Additionally, the continued growth in the demand for a highly skilled workforce will bolster enrolments as a larger share of high school graduates enroll in post-secondary education and existing workers seek upskilling.

Productivity is expected to be stagnant (average annual growth rate of 0.0%). %. Despite incorporating technology to provide a more flexible learning environmental, the university industry is expected to remain a labour heavy sector. While offering online courses provides greater flexibility to students, professors and teaching assistants will always be required to teach and grade coursework and exams, leaving little room for productivity growth in the sector.

Employment is projected to increase by 1.2% annually. Due to its labour intensity, employment growth is expected to grow at a similar pace to real GDP. With limited growth expected in the number of students, employment growth is also projected to remain moderate. Also supporting positive employment growth is the large share of part-time workers in the sector, which further increases the number of individual employees required to meet the equivalent full-time employment levels.

Challenges and Opportunities

Increasing the number of courses offered online could continue to provide opportunities for universities to further decrease their operating costs by removing the constraints and expenses related to classroom space in a traditional university, and reinvest into expanding services offered to students. However, increased demand for online courses has caused new, non-traditional, universities specializing in online learning to emerge. These online institutions may provide similar courses at a lower cost, posing a threat to traditional campus-based Canadian universities. While this is not yet an eminent risk, shifts in student preferences could cause this issue to become more prominent in the longer term. Another risk to the sector is changes to government funding. Economic conditions can also play a role in the budget allocated to funding post-secondary education. Finally, there is always the risk that the government prolongs or further limits the current international study permit cap. Even without an explicit cap, the recent inability of many international students to find housing in Canada may limit the future influx of students.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.