Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 6113)

Universities comprise establishments primarily engaged in providing academic courses and granting degrees at the bachelor or graduate levels. The requirement for admission is at least a high school diploma or equivalent general academic training for baccalaureate programs, and often a baccalaureate degree for professional or graduate programs. Canadian universities employed 295,000 workers in 2021, distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 21% in Quebec, 15% in British Columbia, 13% in Alberta, and 14% in the remaining provinces. The workforce is characterized by a majority of women (57%) and a relatively high share of part-time employees (25%). Key occupations (4-digit code) include:

• University professors and lecturers (4011)
• Post-secondary teaching and research assistants (4012)
• Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training (0421)
• Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers (4166)
• Educational counsellors (4033)
• Librarians (5111)

Economic activity in universities is largely driven by demographic trends in the 18-24 age cohort (the prime age for attending universities) and particularly sensitive to government expenditures in education. Overall, the industry appears to be resilient to cyclical downturns, reflecting the fact that during bad economic times, youth usually stay in school longer, while displaced workers return to school to upgrade their skills in response to poorer job opportunities. As a result, the output continued to increase during the recession of 2008-2009 and kept expanding at a relatively solid pace until 2019. Despite sluggish growth in population aged 18-24 during that period, the number of enrolments in universities increased continuously, largely supported by international students, although Canadian students still accounted for about 85% of total enrolments in 2019 (down from 91% in 2011).

The COVID-19 pandemic led to major disruptions in universities across the country in 2020, with most institutions cancelling in-person classes and moving to virtual learning. However, the contraction in output was modest (-0.5% only) and essentially reflected a decline in international student enrolments due to the closure of visa application centres and travel restrictions. In fact, Canadian student enrolments continued to increase in 2020, limiting the decline in output. With the return of international students and additional growth in total enrollments, the output strongly rebounded in 2021 (+2.8%), resulting in an average growth rate of 2.0% annually in real GDP for the entire period 2012-2021. On the employment side, growth generally tracked the rate of output, albeit at a weaker pace of 1.4% per year, as productivity increased at annual rate of 0.6%. This means that productivity growth accounted for 30% of output growth. New technologies such as online courses and e-learning applications have enabled universities to meet the growing demand for their services, without increasing employment excessively.

Over the projection period, output growth in universities is expected to moderate somewhat relative to the past decade, primarily reflecting subdued growth in population aged 18 to 24 in the coming years. However, this situation will be partly offset by further increases in international student enrolments in the short to medium term and an acceleration in population growth among the 18-24 age group during the second half of the forecast horizon. University enrollment will continue to be supported by the growing demand for higher educated and skilled workers, resulting from the changing nature of work and the shift toward a digital economy. Some jobs are being eliminated by automation, while many others require new skills and more sophisticated knowledge to better integrate and complement technology, including artificial intelligence. Therefore, higher skills and educational requirements on the labour market are expected to keep pushing up enrolment rates in post-secondary education, particularly in sciences, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM).

On average, the industry’s real GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% annually over the period 2022-2031. The weaker pace of growth in output relative to the previous decade and additional gains in productivity are also projected to lead to slower growth in employment, with job creation averaging 1.0% per year. Overall, productivity is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.7%. The adoption of virtual learning and other digital technologies inside and outside the classroom before and during the pandemic is expected to continue moving forward, leading to further gains in productivity.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Universities

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.