Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Information Documents
** NOTE **
NOTE: The COPS website is currently being updated with the latest results developed in 2022 and covering the 2022-2031 period. Additional analytical and projection summaries will be updated in the coming months. To be notified of these updates, please contact us at SPPC-COPS@hrsdc-rhdcc.gc.ca
Summary of results (2022-2031)
The Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.
This document presents the two main steps of the model, and identifies labour market imbalances (shortage/surplus) for 293 occupational groupings at the national level, covering the entire workforce for the 2022-2031 period.
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Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply (2022-2031)
Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses projection models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.
This document presents the results 2022 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of occupational imbalances over the projection period.
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Job Openings (2022-2031)
Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.
This document presents the job openings results by component that underlay the 2022 COPS projections.
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Job Seekers (2022-2031)
Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses projection models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.
This document presents the jobs seekers results by component that underlay the 2022 COPS projections.
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Industrial Outlook (2022-2031)
Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.
This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2022 COPS projections. It provides an analysis of the historical and projected trends in output, employment and productivity by aggregate sector (primary, manufacturing, construction and services sectors), including a 10-year outlook for the 42 industries defined by COPS. The projections are based on the anticipated changes in external and domestic drivers of aggregate demand presented in the macroeconomic scenario. In addition to provide comparisons of output and employment projections across industries, the analysis also discusses the potential impact of new technologies (such as advanced robotics, mobile applications, machine learning and artificial intelligence) on productivity and employment growth by industry.
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Macroeconomic Outlook (2022-2031)
Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of a macroeconomic scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.
This document presents the macroeconomic outlook that underlies the 2022 COPS projections. This outlook was developed in collaboration with Deloitte based on information available as of Spring 2022.
The future long-term trends in Canada’s economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographic developments, namely population aging and higher immigration. Such demographic changes are projected to have a significant influence in the long term evolution of Canada's labour force, employment, and economic potential.
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COPS Occupational Groupings
The 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC) has 500 unit groups. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. To overcome this problem, small occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings of sufficient size in terms of employment were obtained. The table below displays the composition of each of these groupings and the skill level where they belong according to NOC.
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Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2008-2017) - November 2008
Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) has produced three reports with detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. HRSDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply, and in the industrial and occupational distribution of employment. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.