Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries (2161)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
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- Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries (2161)
- Skill Type
- Natural and applied sciences and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- 14,400
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 38.3 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 62 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group has been volatile, but overall, it remained substantially above level observed prior to 2018. The unemployment rate increased slightly during the period and was above pre-pandemic level in 2021, but it remained substantially below the national average. This was particularly true in Ontario and Quebec, where the large majority of these workers work. The number of job vacancies remained stable. The number of unemployed per job vacancy remained stable and above 1 during the period, but below the national average. However, the ratio dropped below one in Ontario and specially in the province of Quebec. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries are expected to total 4,600, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 2,800.
As the number of job openings is expected to be substantially higher than the number of job seekers over the 2022-2031 period, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years are expected to persist into the 2019-2028 period and could even become more acute given this projected difference. Employment is projected to grow at a similar rate than the average of all occupations. Despite this, job creation will represent 42% of all openings, a proportion that is above the average of all occupations (about 37% of openings). Actuaries are expected to benefit from the trend toward developing new products, especially in the life insurance field, as well as from the growth in sales of private retirement plans, registered retirement savings plans (RRSP) and mutual funds. Anticipated demand for statisticians is also expected to be strong due to increasing popularity of data science and analytics, involving predictive analysis, machine learning as well as artificial intelligence. These practices will continue to be integral parts in various fields and sectors such as medicine, politics, transportation, government, retail, etc. There are few mathematicians, and they are mainly employed in financial institutions, in public administration, research centers or universities, where employment growth is expected to be more at par with population growth. Retirements will also account for a significant proportion of job openings (about 43%) in this occupational group. Yet, while these workers are on average younger, they tend to retire at a slightly earlier age than the typical worker in Canada. As a result, the retirement rate is expected to be below the national average.
Regarding labour supply, given the important level of enrolment in post-secondary programs, and because of the specialized nature of the occupation in this group, about three quarters of job seekers are expected to come from the school system, mostly from bachelor graduates, but also from the Master and PhD levels. The projected number of school leavers alone is projected to be larger than the number of total job openings, given the popularity of these programs. The remaining job seekers are projected to be new immigrants. The skills typically required in this occupation are usually standard worldwide and not unique to the Canadian labour market. As a result, there are lower barriers for immigrants to become mathematicians, statisticians, and actuaries. In addition, foreigners seeking employment in this occupational group from countries that have a free trade agreement with a labour component with Canada with a labour component could be eligible to work in Canada, making it easier for them to enter and permanently remain in the country. Given the relatively important supply of workers and that the skills acquired in this occupation can be complemented by other competencies, a significant number of workers will seek opportunities in other occupations, especially those related to finance, as well as those involved in data analysis and research. This negative mobility will be sufficient to offset the large number of school leavers and immigrants, relatively levelling the projected flows of job openings and seekers over the projected period and allowing the recent situation of labour shortage to persist over the long run.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 1,900 | 41% |
| Retirements: | 2,000 | 43% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 400 | 9% |
| Emigration: | 300 | 7% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 4,600 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 8,400 | 300% |
| Immigration: | 2,600 | 93% |
| Other: | -8,200 | -293% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 2,800 | 100% |