Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (33102)
- Occupational Outlook
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STRONG RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a strong risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Health occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 3: Occupations usually require a college diploma or apprenticeship training of less than two years; or more than six months of on-the-job training
- Employment in 2023
- 296,900
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 36 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 64 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand substantially exceeded labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates is expected to total 177,400, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (172,700).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 48% of job openings, a higher proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (2.6%) is expected to be higher than the national average (1.2%).
- Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates work mainly in Health Care (97 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.5% over the period.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 52% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 80%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 177,400 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 17,740 per year, representing approximately 6.0% of its 2023 employment level (296,900 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 172,700 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 17,270 job seekers per year. This represents around 5.8% of the 2023 employment level (296,900 workers).