Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Retail and wholesale trade managers (60020)
- Occupational Outlook
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BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing signs of balanced labour market conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to experience balanced labour market conditions over the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Sales and service occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 0: Management occupations
- Employment in 2023
- 355,000
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 47 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 62 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed signs of balanced labour market conditions in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour supply was sufficient to meet the labour demand in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Retail and wholesale trade managers is expected to total 156,600, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (164,700).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 5% of job openings, a lower proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (0.2%) is expected to be below the national average (1.2%).
- Retail and wholesale trade managers work mainly in Retail Trade (74 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.5% over the period. Additionally, 17% work in Wholesale Trade, which is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 0.5%.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 95% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 83%), a proportion higher than the national average (around 78%).
- Workers in this occupation tend to retire at an age similar to the average age, but they are more likely to be aged 50 and over, resulting in a higher retirement rate than the average for all occupations.
- Due to the level of experience typically required in this occupation, workers from other occupations are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 156,600 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 15,660 per year, representing approximately 4.4% of its 2023 employment level (355,000 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 164,700 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 16,470 job seekers per year. This represents around 4.6% of the 2023 employment level (355,000 workers).