Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Other services supervisors (62029)
- Occupational Outlook
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BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing signs of balanced labour market conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to experience balanced labour market conditions over the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Sales and service occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 2: Occupations usually require a college diploma or apprenticeship training of two or more years; or supervisory occupations
- Employment in 2023
- 27,000
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 29 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 63 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed signs of balanced labour market conditions in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour supply was sufficient to meet the labour demand in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Other services supervisors is expected to total 10,700, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (11,800).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 41% of job openings, a higher proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (1.5%) is expected to be higher than the national average (1.2%).
- Other services supervisors work mainly in Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Services (40 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.4% over the period. Additionally, 29% work in Management, Administrative and Other Support Services, which is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 1.5%. Finally, 11% work in Repair, Personal and Household Services, an industry anticipated to grow at 1.1% over the same period.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 59% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 76%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants.
- Finally, mobility is expected to be slightly negative for this occupation as the number of workers departing for other occupations or career break exceeds the number of workers coming in the occupation.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 10,700 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 1,070 per year, representing approximately 4.0% of its 2023 employment level (27,000 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 11,800 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 1,180 job seekers per year. This represents around 4.4% of the 2023 employment level (27,000 workers).