Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Industrial electricians (72201)
- Occupational Outlook
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MODERATE RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a moderate risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing moderate signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a moderate risk of shortage through the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 2: Occupations usually require a college diploma or apprenticeship training of two or more years; or supervisory occupations
- Employment in 2023
- 35,600
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 37 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 64 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed moderate signs of shortage in recent years. Between 2009 and 2019, employment in this profession showed an upward trend. After a drop in 2020 due to pandemic-related restrictions affecting the construction sector, it quickly rebounded, returning to its pre-pandemic level by 2023. The unemployment rate was rather volatile, but generally lower than the national average, and in 2023 reached a historically low level. The number of vacancies and the vacancy rate were not very high. However, as the number of unemployed available to fill these vacancies was low, the number of unemployed per vacancy was also below the national average. On the other hand, the proportion of positions that have remained vacant for 90 days or more was only slightly higher than the average for all occupations. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand slightly exceeded the labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Industrial electricians is expected to total 14,300, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (14,900).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 21% of job openings, a lower proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (0.8%) is expected to be below the national average (1.2%).
- Industrial electricians are distributed across several industries. Among others, Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation Services (8 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.1% over the period. Additionally, 8% work in Mining, which is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 0.4%. Finally, 8% work in Primary Metals and Mineral Products, an industry anticipated to grow at 0.2% over the same period.
- The transition to greener industries is expected to stimulate the demand for industrial electricians due to equipment modernization, the development of renewable energy, the adoption of clean technologies, and the construction of green infrastructure.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 79% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 80%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- Workers in this occupation tend to retire at an age similar to the average age, but they are more likely to be aged 50 and over, resulting in a higher retirement rate than the average for all occupations.
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by workers from other occupations and new immigrants.
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers. The number of registrations in Red Seal apprenticeship programs for industrial electricians has been growing over the past decade.
- The mobility should be positive for this occupation as many job seekers are expected to come from other occupations, such as Electricians (72200), among others.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 14,300 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 1,430 per year, representing approximately 4.0% of its 2023 employment level (35,600 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 14,900 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 1,490 job seekers per year. This represents around 4.2% of the 2023 employment level (35,600 workers).