Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Mine labourers (85110)
- Occupational Outlook
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MODERATE RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a moderate risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing moderate signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a moderate risk of shortage through the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 5: Occupations usually require short-term work demonstration and no formal education
- Employment in 2023
- 3,100
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 25 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 70 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed moderate signs of shortage in recent years. As they tend to work outside, the number of workers and unemployed varies throughout the year. On average, between 2019 and 2023, employment of mining labourers increased slightly. The annualized unemployment rate remained higher than the national average, but the gap has narrowed in recent years. Since 2021, labour demand has increased, as evidenced by the rise in vacancies. Furthermore, the vacancy rate and the proportion of positions that remained unfilled for 90 days or more were higher than the average for all occupations. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand slightly exceeded the labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Mine labourers is expected to total 300, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (300).
- Job creation is expected to be negative, while in all professions, job creation should account for around 32% of job openings.
- Employment is expected to decrease (-0.2% annually) compared to an increase of 1.2% for all occupations.
- Mine labourers work mainly in Mining (87 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.4% over the period. Additionally, 11% work in Support Activities for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction, which is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 1.9%.
- Employment growth will be supported by Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy, which aims at generating high quality and paying jobs. However, growth might be limited by the expectation that a growing share of output gains will come from productivity improvements, rather than from the creation of new jobs.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for all the job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 52%), a proportion lower than the national average (around 78%).
- Fewer workers in this occupation are aged 50 and over, and tend to retire later, resulting in a lower retirement rate than the average for all occupations.
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants.
- According to the Mining Industry Human Resources Council, the mining sector might also face challenges attracting labour, including unfavourable local demographics, low post-secondary enrolment in important mining-related programs, and difficulty attracting underrepresented groups.
- Given the harsh working conditions and relative lower wages with related or comparable occupations, a significant number of workers are expected to leave this occupation for related professions, such as Underground production and development miners (83100), followed by Heavy equipment operators (73400), among others.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 300 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 30 per year, representing approximately 1.0% of its 2023 employment level (3,100 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 300 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 30 job seekers per year. This represents around 0.9% of the 2023 employment level (3,100 workers).