Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Business systems specialists (21221)
- Occupational Outlook
-
BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing signs of balanced labour market conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to experience balanced labour market conditions over the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Natural and applied sciences and related occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 1: Occupations usually require a university degree
- Employment in 2023
- 34,900
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 32 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 61 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed signs of balanced labour market conditions in recent years. Employment in this occupation increased steadily, with the unemployment rate consistently remaining much lower than the national average. By 2022, the number of job vacancies had more than doubled compared to its pre-pandemic level, yet the job vacancy rate stayed close to or below the national average during this period. Additionally, the number of unemployed workers available to fill these vacancies decreased. However, in 2023, both job vacancies and the job vacancy rate fell sharply, while the number of unemployed workers per vacancy increased to more balanced levels. These indicators suggest that while there was strong demand initially, the labour market adjusted over time. So, the labour supply was sufficient to meet the labour demand in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Business systems specialists is expected to total 19,300, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (20,800).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 46% of job openings, a higher proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (2.3%) is expected to be higher than the national average (1.2%).
- Business systems specialists work mainly in Computer Systems Design and Related Services (42 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.4% over the period, led by the increasing adoption of computer technology, digital platforms, mobile apps, and big data analytics services. Additionally, 18% work in Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services, which is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 1.3%, primarily driven by the adoption of customization, digital technologies, and the need to compete with emerging Fintech and Insurtech startup companies. Finally, 11% work in Public Administration, an industry anticipated to grow at 0.7% over the same period, mainly led by greater government spending towards health care and tackling climate change through various initiatives.
- Within these industries, the acceleration of digital transformation and the growth of technologies such as cloud computing, Internet of Things (IoT), and artificial intelligence will drive the demand for Business systems specialists.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 54% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 81%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- New immigrants are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by the school leavers.
- Since the skills required for this occupation are generally standard and recognized worldwide, new immigrants generally face relatively low barriers to entering the Canadian labour market.
- The growing popularity of business and computer science degrees has also contributed to the increase in school leavers entering the field. This trend is expected to continue over the projection period, maintaining a steady supply of workers from both immigration and school leavers.
- Finally, mobility is expected to be negative for this occupation as the number of workers departing for other occupations exceeds the number of workers entering in the occupation.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 19,300 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 1,930 per year, representing approximately 5.5% of its 2023 employment level (34,900 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 20,800 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 2,080 job seekers per year. This represents around 5.9% of the 2023 employment level (34,900 workers).