Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections. The projection results using the 2021 NOC will be available at a later date.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Specialist physicians (3111)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
- Specialist physicians (3111)
- Skill Type
- Health occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 46.1 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.
The analysis of key labour market indicators such as job vacancies and employment growth as well as the unemployment rate suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.
Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Specialist physicians are expected to total 29,800, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 24,000.
The labour shortage conditions seen in recent years are expected to persist into the 2022-2031 period and could even become more acute as the projected number of job openings is expected to be substantially larger than the projected number of job seekers over that period. A more detailed analysis of the outlook of this occupation will be released in the coming weeks.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
|Other Replacement Demand:||1,700||6%|
|Projected Job Openings:||29,800||100%|
|Projected Job Seekers:||24,000||100%|