Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses (31301)
- Occupational Outlook
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STRONG RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a strong risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Health occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 1: Occupations usually require a university degree
- Employment in 2023
- 363,100
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 26 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 63 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand substantially exceeded labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
- Annual employment growth in this occupation was significantly above the average for all occupations (1.3%).
- The unemployment rate remained extremely low in 2023, well below the national average of 5.4%.
- The number of job vacancies and the job vacancy rate more than doubled, while the job vacancy rate stood twice as high as the national average. Two out of three vacancies remained unfilled after 90 days. In addition, there was consistently less than one unemployed worker per job vacancy, limiting the ability of employers to fill vacancies.
- The COVID-19 pandemic created substantial bottlenecks in the health system, resulting from the delayal of non-urgent treatments and the rise in burnout among medical professionals.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses is expected to total 179,800, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (159,500).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 54% of job openings, a higher proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (2.4%) is expected to be higher than the national average (1.2%). As the Canadian population ages, the demand for health services and consequently the need for health care professionals is projected to increase. Moreover, the commitment made by some provinces to reduce wait times in emergency rooms, for treatments, and for surgery is expected to contribute to the increase of labour demand for workers in this occupation. Also, nurses who have received the proper training are now allowed to complete tasks that they were previously not authorized to do, such as adjusting medications, initiating diagnostic and therapeutic measures, and prescribing contraceptives.
- Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses work mainly in Health Care (95 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% over the period.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 46% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 76%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- Although workers in this occupation tend to retire at an age similar to the average, as fewer of them are aged 50 and over, they have a lower retirement rate than the average for all occupations.
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants.
- Finally, mobility is expected to be negative for this occupation, resulting from the high educational requirements and the departure of many workers for managerial and supervisory roles in health care.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 179,800 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 17,980 per year, representing approximately 5.0% of its 2023 employment level (363,100 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 159,500 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 15,950 job seekers per year. This represents around 4.4% of the 2023 employment level (363,100 workers).