Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)

Search Result : Dental hygienists and dental therapists (32111)

Occupational Outlook

STRONG RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a strong risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.

Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period.

Broad occupational categories

Health occupations, except management

Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)

TEER 2: Occupations usually require a college diploma or apprenticeship training of two or more years; or supervisory occupations

Employment in 2023

33,900

Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023

26 %

Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023

66 years old

Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)

The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand substantially exceeded labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.

• Annual employment growth in this occupation was similar to the average for all occupations (1.3%).
• The unemployment rate remained extremely low in 2023, well below the national average of 5.4%.
• The number of job vacancies and the vacancy rate remained at an elevated level, and there was consistently less than one unemployed worker per job vacancy, limiting the ability of employers to fill vacancies. Indeed, over half of vacancies remained unfilled after 90 days, compared to the average of one-third among all occupations.
• The recent introduction and expansion of the Canada Dental Care Plan (CDCP) has resulted in increased demand for dental services. Seniors aged 65 and over, children aged 18 and under, and people with disabilities are now covered by the CDCP.

Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)

Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Dental hygienists and dental therapists is expected to total 15,900, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (15,700).

Projected job openings (2024-2033)

Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 15,900 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 1,590 per year, representing approximately 4.7% of its 2023 employment level (33,900 workers).

• Job creation is expected to account for approximately 63% of job openings, a higher proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
• Annual employment growth (2.6%) is expected to be higher than the national average (1.2%). Population growth and the increasing awareness of oral health are expected to lead to increased demand for dental care over the next decade. Additionally, the continued expansion of the CDCP will enable more Canadian families to access dental care, further increasing demand for these services.
• Dental hygienists and dental therapists work exclusively in Health Care (100 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% over the period.
• Replacement demand is expected to account for about 37% of job openings.
  • Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 64%), a proportion lower than the national average (around 78%).
  • Although workers in this occupation tend to retire at an age similar to the average, as fewer of them are aged 50 and over, they have a lower retirement rate than the average for all occupations.

Projected job seekers (2024-2033)

Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 15,700 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 1,570 job seekers per year. This represents around 4.6% of the 2023 employment level (33,900 workers).

• Due to the specialized nature of this occupation, school leavers are expected to account for the vast majority of job seekers. Access to the occupation is regulated, as licensing by the appropriate provincial/territorial regulatory body is required for dental hygienists (and in some provinces and territories for dental therapists). Still, the occupation is highly popular among school leavers due to the good placement rates and very low unemployment rates.

Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)