Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Home building and renovation managers (70011)
- Occupational Outlook
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MODERATE RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a moderate risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing signs of balanced labour market conditions in the recent years and the projected flow of job openings is expected to substantially exceed the projected flow of job seekers, the occupation is expected to face a moderate risk of shortage during the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 0: Management occupations
- Employment in 2023
- 146,000
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 44 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 65 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed signs of balanced labour market conditions in recent years. From 2000 to 2019, employment in this occupation experienced steady growth. After a sharp decline in 2020 due to pandemic-related health restrictions, the construction sector quickly rebounded. By 2023, employment levels slightly exceeded those of 2019. The unemployment rate was historically lower in the industry and tended to decrease over the period. This profession is characterized by an exceptionally high proportion (99%) of self-employed workers. As these entrepreneurs are less likely to experience periods of unemployment or claim Employment Insurance benefits, traditional labour market statistics are more difficult to interpret. Additionally, job vacancy data collected from businesses only reflects salaried positions. However, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour supply was sufficient to meet the labour demand in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Home building and renovation managers is expected to total 72,400, which substantially exceeded the number of job seekers (35,700).
- Job creation is expected to account for approximately 28% of job openings, a lower proportion than the average for all occupations (around 32% of job openings).
- Annual employment growth (1.3%) is expected to be close to the national average (1.2%).
- Home building and renovation managers work exclusively in Construction (100 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.5% over the period.
- In the short term, the expected decrease in interest rates by the Bank of Canada, the current housing shortage, and the transition to greener infrastructure will offer employment opportunities for managers in construction and home renovation.
- The Plan to Reduce Emissions by 2030 aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This will require more energy-efficient buildings, potentially leading to large-scale renovation projects. In addition, Government grants and incentives could help support these initiatives and stimulate the market.
- However, high prices and mortgage rates could limit accessibility and the demand in the long term.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for about 72% of job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 81%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- Workers in this occupation tend to retire at an age similar to the average age, but they are more likely to be aged 50 and over, resulting in a higher retirement rate than the average for all occupations.
- Due to the level of experience typically required in this occupation, workers from other occupations are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 72,400 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 7,240 per year, representing approximately 5.0% of its 2023 employment level (146,000 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 35,700 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 3,570 job seekers per year. This represents around 2.4% of the 2023 employment level (146,000 workers).