Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2024-2033)
Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus
The process consists of 3 steps.
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):
COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
Search Result : Harvesting labourers (85101)
- Occupational Outlook
-
STRONG RISK OF SHORTAGE: This occupation is expected to face a strong risk of labour shortage over the period of 2024-2033 at the national level.
Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years, and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar, the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period.
- Broad occupational categories
- Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations, except management
- Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER)
- TEER 5: Occupations usually require short-term work demonstration and no formal education
- Employment in 2023
- 22,900
- Percentage of workers aged 50 and over in 2023
- 31 %
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2023
- 70 years old
Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023)
The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Indeed, the analysis of key labour market indicators, including job vacancies, employment growth, and the unemployment rate suggests that labour demand substantially exceeded labour supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
The occupation showed strong signs of shortage in recent years. Employers encounter difficulties to attract domestic workers due to this seasonal nature, its rural location, relatively low wages and long hours. This is why a significant proportion of farm workers are temporary foreign workers, particularly during peak production months. The Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP) allows employers to hire temporary foreign workers (TFW) when Canadians and permanent residents are not available.
- It should be noted that TFWs in this occupation are difficult to capture in the official statistics based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). If contacted by the LFS, temporary foreign workers would be included only if they identify the selected dwelling as their usual place of residence. In a lot of cases, these workers are not the main respondents to the survey for different reasons, including their lodging conditions and the lack of official language competencies.
- Indeed, according to the IRCC and ESDC's administrative data, there were a substantial number of temporary foreign workers in this occupation during peak seasons.
- To properly analyze this occupation, both sources of information must be considered. Following this assumption and adding these temporary foreign workers to the LFS count, over the period 2019-2023, the total employment in this occupation would have been more stable or even increased.
Due to the seasonal nature of labour demand in this occupation, both the unemployment rate and the number of vacancies vary throughout the year. During the high season, the unemployment rate generally falls below the national average, while the vacancy rate is very high.
Coupled with the use of temporary foreign workers, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupation over the 2021-2023 period.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and new job seekers (2024-2033)
COPS projects the flows of job openings from job creation and replacement needs and new job seekers over the projection period.Over the period 2024-2033, the number of job openings for Harvesting labourers is expected to total 4,500, which is relatively similar to the number of job seekers (2,500).
- Job creation is expected to be negative, while in all professions, job creation should account for around 32% of job openings.
- Employment is expected to decrease (-0.7% annually) compared to an increase of 1.2% for all occupations.
- Harvesting labourers work mainly in Agriculture (99 %), an industry expected to grow at an annual rate of -0.5% over the period.
- Forecasted improvements in weather conditions are expected to boost production for most crops (e.g., grains, oilseeds and pulses). However, climate change has made weather conditions increasingly unpredictable, and more years with severe droughts such as those experienced in 2021 and 2023 could have a significant negative impact on output.
- In addition, if the United States opts to impose large tariffs on imports from Canada, it will likely lead to decreased demand for agriculture products, for which the US is an important export destination.
- Higher international market integration and labour recruitment difficulties will continue to put pressure on Canadian farmers to be cost-effective through innovative technologies such as biometric sensors to examine livestock, self-learning milking machines, and driverless tractors guided by geo-positioning satellite devices.
- Replacement demand is expected to account for all the job openings.
- Most of the replacement needs are due to retirement (approximately 75%), a proportion comparable to the national average (around 78%).
- School leavers are expected to be the main source of job seekers, followed by new immigrants.
- Given the large supply of workers from the school system and immigration, a significant number of workers are expect to leave this occupation for other professions.
Projected job openings (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 4,500 job openings are projected, resulting from both job creation (expansion demand) and replacement demand (retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration). This equates to an average of 450 per year, representing approximately 2.0% of its 2023 employment level (22,900 workers).
Projected job seekers (2024-2033)
Over the period 2024-2033, a total of 2,500 job seekers arising from school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and those changing occupations are expected, equivalent to an average of 250 job seekers per year. This represents around 1.1% of the 2023 employment level (22,900 workers).
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)
Because the occupation was showing strong signs of shortage conditions in the recent years (step 1), and the projected flows of job openings and job seekers are expected to be similar (step 2), the occupation is expected to face a strong risk of shortage through the projection period (step 3).Difficulties to attract domestic workers due to this seasonal nature, its rural location, relatively low wages and long hours have resulted in greater utilization of temporary foreign workers for this occupation during the peak working months. This situation is expected to persist over time.