Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
The current COPS projections were completed in 2019, well before the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak that resulted in exceptional and abrupt economic and labour market disruptions in Canada as well as abroad. However, the focus of the COPS projections is on long-term trends in occupational labour markets, not on short-term developments. At the moment, these long-term trends are not expected to be affected markedly by the COVID-19 outbreak as its impacts are generally foreseen to be temporary.
Users can access projection results for the total number of job openings by occupation, including those attributable to expansion demand (employment growth) or replacement demand (mostly retirements). On the supply side, users can access projection results for the total number of people seeking work in the occupation, including job seekers coming from the school system or immigration (the main sources of new labour market entrants).
The projections were developed for 293 occupational groupings that cover the entire workforce, using the 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC includes 500 different occupations, represented by a 4-digit code. However, several of these occupations are too small (less than 10,000 workers across Canada) to be used for projection purposes. As a result, the 500 occupations were combined into 293 groupings to develop the projections.
Projections of Job Openings
- Employment change (Expansion Demand)
- Retirement Rates
- Emigration and In-Service Mortality
- Total Job Openings
Projections of Job Seekers
- School Leavers
- New Immigrants
- Other Job Seekers (occupational mobility, net re-entries, working students, etc.)
- Total Job Seekers
- Files Structure Definition
- Assessment of Recent Labour Market Conditions, 2016-2018
- Summary of the Components, 2019-2028
Sources: Employment and Social Development Canada - COPS 2019 Projections; and Statistics Canada - unpublished data, Labour Force Survey.
Statistics Canada information is used with the permission of Statistics Canada. Users are forbidden to copy the data and redisseminate them, in an original or modified form, for commercial purposes, without permission from Statistics Canada. Information on the availability of the wide range of data from Statistics Canada can be obtained from Statistics Canada's Regional Offices, its World Wide Web site at www.statcan.gc.ca, and its toll-free access number 1-800-263-1136.